Note: I know these influencers probably have way more knowledge than me about this, so I am assuming that I must be missing something.
Why do "AI influencers" like David Shapiro say that AGI will come in the next couple of years, or at least by 2030? It doesn't really make sense to me, and this is because I thought there were significant mathematical problems standing in the way of AGI development.
Like the fact that neural networks are a black box. We have no idea what these parameters really mean. Moreover, we also have no idea how they generalize to unseen data. And finally, we have no mathematical proof as to their upper limits, how they model cognition, etc.
I know technological progress is exponential, but these seem like math problems to me, and math problems are usually notoriously slow in terms of how quickly they are solved.
Moreover, I've heard these same people say that AGI will help us reach "longevity escape velocity" by 2030. This makes no sense to me, we probably know <10% of how the immune system works(the system in your body responsible for fighting cancer, infections, etc) and even less than that about the brain. And how can an AGI help us with scientific research if we can't even mathematically verify that its answers are correct when making novel discoveries?
I don't know, I must be missing something. It feels like a lot of the models top AI companies are releasing right now are just massive black box brute force uses of data/power that will inevitably reach a plateau as companies run out of usable data/power.
And it feels like a lot of people who work for these top companies are just trying to get as much hype/funding as possible so that when their models reach this plateau, they can walk away with millions.
I must be missing something. As someone with a chronic autoimmune condition, I really want technology to solve all of my problems. I am just incredibly skeptical of people saying the solution/cure is 5/10/20 years away. And it feels like the bubble will pop soon. What am I missing?
TLDR: I don't understand why people think AGI will be coming in the next 5 years, I must be missing something. It feels like there are significant mathematical hurdles that will take a lot longer than that to truly solve. Also, "longevity escape velocity" by 2030 makes no sense to me. It feels like top companies have a significant incentive to over hype the shit out of their field.
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