After listening to about 4-5 lectures by Sam Altman at the Davos Forum, I gathered some of his comments about GPT-5 (not verbatim). I think we can piece together some insights from these fragments:
- "The current GPT-4 has too many shortcomings; it's much worse than the version we will have this year and even more so compared to next year’s."
- "If GPT-4 can currently solve only 10% of human tasks, GPT-5 should be able to handle 15% or 20%."
- "The most important aspect is not the specific problems it solves, but the increasing general versatility."
- "More powerful models and how to use existing models effectively are two multiplying factors, but clearly, the more powerful model is more important."
- "Access to specific data and making AI more relevant to practical work will see significant progress this year. Current issues like slow speed and lack of real-time processing will improve. Performance on longer, more complex problems will become more precise, and the ability to do more will increase."
- "I believe the most crucial point of AI is the significant acceleration in the speed of scientific discoveries, making new discoveries increasingly automated. This isn’t a short-term matter, but once it happens, it will be a big deal."
- "As models become smarter and better at reasoning, we need less training data. For example, no one needs to read 2000 biology textbooks; you only need a small portion of extremely high-quality data and to deeply think and chew over it. The models will work harder on thinking through a small portion of known high-quality data."
- "The infrastructure for computing power in preparation for large-scale AI is still insufficient."
- "GPT-4 should be seen as a preview with obvious limitations. Humans inherently have poor intuition about exponential growth. If GPT-5 shows significant improvement over GPT-4, just as GPT-4 did over GPT-3, and the same for GPT-6 over GPT-5, what would that mean? What does it mean if we continue on this trajectory?"
- "As AI becomes more powerful and possibly discovers new scientific knowledge, even automatically conducting AI research, the pace of the world's development will exceed our imagination. I often tell people that no one knows what will happen next. It's important to stay humble about the future; you can predict a few steps, but don't make too many predictions."
- "What impact will it have on the world when cognitive costs are reduced by a thousand or a million times, and capabilities are greatly enhanced? What if everyone in the world owned a company composed of 10,000 highly capable virtual AI employees, experts in various fields, tireless and increasingly intelligent? The timing of this happening is unpredictable, but it will continue on an exponential growth line. How much time do we have to prepare?"
- "I believe smartphones will not disappear, just as smartphones have not replaced PCs. On the other hand, I think AI is not just a simple computational device like a phone plus a bunch of software; it might be something of greater significance."
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