All these researchers are using p(doom) to describe the probability of x risk, but I’m actually more interested in p(despair), the probability of civilization collapse, mass unemployment crises, falling living conditions, or anything else that falls short of extinction.
For every one scenario where AI (or a group of humans with AI) gets us all, there is probably 10 scenarios where it gets some of us and feels indifferent about the stragglers, right? So when an anthropic researcher says “my p(doom) is 10%”, are they also implying “my p(despair) is > 50%?”
This is a really important question. I think we ought to know!
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