 | A space startup got quoted $75–100 million by a traditional prime contractor to build its first satellite. They built it — launch included — for $2 million.
The story behind the number is more interesting than the number itself. They ran the math wrong twice — first landing on a $50/kg break-even, then correcting to $500/kg once they pressure-tested it against reality — before the real pivot happened. Wrong estimate first, cheap correction after, in public, under a deadline they'd already set for themselves.
Hmm — this reminded me of something I posted a while back: stop thinking, start executing hit the same nerve, from a completely different room.
The number that scares most people out of starting is somebody else's estimate of what caution should cost, wearing the costume of the real price.
My wife's said this to me for years — 想是问题，做才是答案, thinking about it is the problem, doing something about it is the answer. Took Starcloud a rerun of the math and a deadline to learn the same thing the hard way.
Clip credit: Y Combinator's Lightcone Podcast, featuring Philip Johnston (Starcloud) — full video on their channel. DM for credit or removal requests.
Drop your take — what's the number you've been treating as gospel that you've never actually questioned? [link] [comments] |
Predictive technology: computational social science