Radical Ventures’ Rob Toews explains why his fund passes on almost every AI "Neolab" — except the one now worth $1T

Position beats genius more often than anyone in this space wants to admit.

Every time I trace how these AI bets actually get funded, it's the same mechanism repeating.

Actually, this reminded me of a post I did a while back — a fund manager naming the real signal for buying the bottom, and it wasn't a chart either.

Rob Toews (partner at Radical Ventures) says his fund meets nearly every "Neolab" that gets funded — brand-new companies with no product, no roadmap, sometimes not even a clear technical direction.

Just an accomplished founder saying "I'm from OpenAI/Anthropic/Meta, so I want to raise a billion dollars."

They pass on almost all of them.

The exception was Anthropic.

Spun out of OpenAI five years ago.

Investors at the time called the entry valuation insane.

It's now worth a trillion dollars.

Toews' own framing: "there will be another Anthropic" — the mechanism isn't a one-off, it's a filter that occasionally clears.

I've watched someone spot a bubble this early before. Not in AI — in property. This isn't my story, it belongs to a friend.

I'll call him Chew — it's been a long time. We went to the same university, graduated the same year, both went into construction in Malaysia. He switched upstream to a property developer — a subsidiary of a mainland China parent company — and eventually relocated there for the better part of a decade, right as the property market was in its super-expansion phase. The bubble kept ballooning without ever showing a crack. Chew saw the opportunity, and lock in his purchase of one of the units. The price — he told me — rose 10 fold over the years. Then, like the rest of the shrewd investors, he saw the writing on the wall. He liquidated his holdings and made a huge windfall, right before the bubble burst.

Clip credit: The Information — full video on their channel.

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Drop your take below — has anyone here ever watched someone else make that call before you did?