I get the impression that the AI hype curve is slowly flattening and some beliefs regarding its impact are turning out to be false. It seems that the better the models become, the more professional users gain, while ordinary users remain on a flat plateau.
Here is what I mean: When Codex and Co. came out, everyone was able to create a working todo app with ChatGPT. The models really helped non-coders and semi-professionals produce better output. But newer and more capable models do not seem to have the same effect. Non-coders still only produce pretty standard stuff, and semi-professionals still have a hard time getting actually professional-looking and properly working software up and running. They lack the experience and the "language" to talk to the models in order to unlock their full potential.
The models simply do not push out the same quality of work for ordinary users that a professional coder gets.
I suspect this might be true for many other areas as well. A professional social media strategy expert will probably get better output than a John Doe with no experience. And John Doe will likely not be able to prompt a blueprint for the next Colosseum, while a real architect probably could. In that sense, AI is increasingly becoming a tool that helps professionals keep their edge.
What do you think?
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