It’ll probably take 3,4,or 6 years for a new groundbreaking ai framework to change the world from its initial paper. This is considering how long it took for transformer architecture to be seen with potential and finally scaled to chatgpt and generative AI,3 if using the log rule.

The founding paper for the recent boom in generative AI stems from the paper “attention is all you need” which postulated the transformer architecture in June 2017, it took roughly 1 year for it to start being scaled with the release of GPT:1 in June 2018, after that it took 4 more years for chatgpt to be first released. If we apply the log rule given the new advances in processing and the AI boom it’ll probs be in 3-4 years from the initial release date of the new foundational paper BUT we don’t know if that paper has been released yet or not so until then.