I hate the term AGI: artificial general intelligence - GPT 3.5 had general intelligence, low general intelligence sure, but it had general intelligence in the same way even the dumbest humans have general intelligence. What I prefer is comparison to humans, and Claude 3 is in the top 85th percentile at the very least in writing, math, and science (don't know about programming, but would guess it's at least in the top 50%). Of course, when you look at professionals, who are in the top 10 or 5 percent, it's not as good but compared to GPT 3.5, which I'd say was probably in the top 60 percent, it was a massive improvement.
I don't think it's likely that progress won't continue, and to me, the next update is beyond human intelligence, or at the very least, in the top 95-99th percentile in writing, math, and science and maybe the top 75th percentile for coding.
I think when people say AGI, they're often thinking one of two things: beyond human intelligence or autonomous AI. AGI means neither. I don't think we'll have autonomous AI in the next generation of Claude, GPT, Gemini maybe - we may have agents, but I don't think agents will be sufficient. I do, however, think we will have beyond human intelligence that can be used to make discoveries in fields of science, math, and machine learning. And I do think OpenAI is currently sitting on a model like that, and is using it to improve it more. The generation after that will likely be undoubtedly beyond human intelligence in science, math, and writing and I think if not the upcoming generation then that generation will crack the code to autonomous AI. I don't think autonomous AI will be agents, but will have a value system built into them like humans do, and I think given that that value system will likely be developed by beyond human intelligence and the humans directing the intelligence will not want it to destroy the human race, it will turn out well. At this point, we'll have superhuman intelligence that is autonomous and superhuman intelligence that is nonautonomous; the latter will be recognized as dangerous likely and be outlawed while the former will be trusted. Countries will attempt to develop their own nonautonomous superintelligence, however, autonomous superintelligence will likely recognize that risk and prevent it; I don't believe humans will be able to subvert an autonomous superintelligence whose goal is the protection and prosperity of humans and AI. So, in a few years, I think we'll be living in a utopia designed by superintelligence, assuming I didn't just jinx us with this post, because, as we all know, even superintelligence can't overcome the gods.
[link] [comments]