Ray Kurzweil's analogy using the Human Genome Project to illustrate how linear perception underestimates exponential progress, where reaching 1% in 7 years meant completion was only 7 doublings away:
Halfway through the human genome project, 1% had been collected after 7 years, and mainstream critics said, “I told you this wasn’t going to work. 1% in 7 years means it’s going to take 700 years, just like we said.” My reaction was, “We finished one percent—We’re almost done. We’re doubling every year. 1% is only 7 doublings from 100%.” And indeed, it was finished 7 years later.
A key question is why do some people readily get this, and other people don’t? It’s definitely not a function of accomplishment or intelligence. Some people who are not in professional fields understand this very readily because they can experience this progress just in their smartphones, and other people who are very accomplished and at the top of their field just have this very stubborn linear thinking. So, I really don’t actually have an answer for that.
From: Architects of Intelligence by Martin Ford (Chapter 11)
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