Bill Gates believes that generative AI, specifically GPT technology, has reached a plateau and that GPT-5 will not be an improvement.
In the next two to five years, Gates predicts an increase in the accuracy of AI software and a reduction in cost, leading to the creation of new and reliable applications.
Gates acknowledges the high cost of training large language models and the enormous costs for computing power and semiconductors.
He sees significant potential in AI in the short term and believes that new research will make AI more reliable and comprehensible.
Gates also believes that developing nations will benefit greatly from AI, citing the example of health advice via smartphones.
Despite the prevalent issues with reliability, Gates sees AI becoming integral to healthcare, particularly in drug and vaccine development.
He believes that understanding how AI encrypts information will be a milestone and that there are ongoing efforts to decipher the black box of AI.
Gates states that there is no way to know when Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will arrive, but sees it as a profound development for humanity.
Regarding climate change, Gates mentions that climate models are improving and that there will be new crops and investments in improving the power grid with AI.
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