I was trying to replicate a forecast found on AI 2007 and thought it'd be worth pointing out that any number of trends could fit what we've observed so far with performance gains in AI, and at this juncture we can't use goodness of fi…

I pulled the dataset from the paper and looked at broke out task time by if a model actually succeeded at completing or not, and here's what's happening: The length of task models actually complete increases slightly in the last year or …